UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. — A Penn State study of climate-change impacts in Pennsylvania projects a warmer, wetter commonwealth, with a longer growing season and significantly less snow by the middle of the century.
Conducted by the Environment and Natural Resources Institute in the College of Agricultural Sciences for the state Department of Environmental Protection, the study was mandated by the Pennsylvania Climate Change Act 70 of 2008.
Long-range. The report presents climate projections for Pennsylvania at mid-century and at the end of the century, according to James Shortle, Distinguished Professor of Agricultural and Environmental Economics and director of the Environment and Natural Resources Institute.
“Our conclusions are based on the best available information and science about future climate,” he said.
“Nobody knows how carbon emissions will change, which depends on how fast economies will grow and what global agreements and national initiatives may be instituted to control greenhouse gases, so we developed plausible scenarios based on a high-emissions scenario and a low-emissions scenario.”
Because the global climate system changes very slowly, Shortle explained, reductions in greenhouse gas emissions now won’t have an immediate impact on climate.
Shortle claims climate change over the next few decades will be driven mostly by emissions that have already occurred. He added changes in emissions now won’t make much difference for the next 40 years or so.
Slowly warming. “We can be pretty confident that Pennsylvania’s climate will be warming, and although it is a little less certain, it is very likely to become wetter as well, especially in the winter,” Shortle added.
However the additional precipitation will come in the form of more rain and less snow.
Longer seasons? On the other hand, warm-weather activities will be enhanced by longer seasons. Making predictions about the impact of climate change is complex, Shortle pointed out.
For example, a warmer, wetter Pennsylvania would have a longer growing season and may be more productive agriculturally. But the warmer, wetter weather may limit some crops that do well in the commonwealth now and might promote the growth of pest populations and diseases not common in the state now.
The study examined the affect of projected climate change on the following sectors: water resources, forests and wildlife, aquatic ecosystems and fisheries, agriculture, energy, human health, tourism and outdoor recreation, insurance and economic risk, and economic barriers and opportunities for Pennsylvania.
